Russia 3–1 Nicaragua: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Russia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Nicaragua

A. Golovin 83'

K. Tyukavin 45' (pen)

L. Sadulaev 3'

O. Acevedo 16'

3/27/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalOzon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Russia72%

×Draw17%

Nicaragua11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RussiaExpected goals in this matchNicaragua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.83

Russia

2.42

Nicaragua

0.83

Russia creates 192% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 17 away

2.67

creates per match

0.82

0.85

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Russia

2.67

Nicaragua

0.82

allows per match

Russia

0.85

Nicaragua

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Russia+0.00on par

Nicaragua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Russia ↓

Nicaragua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Russia or draw

89%

Russia or Nicaragua

83%

Draw or Nicaragua

28%

Winning margin

Russia wins by 2+

49%

Nicaragua wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Russia 1+ goals

91%

Russia 2+ goals

69%

Russia 3+ goals

43%

Nicaragua 1+ goals

56%

Nicaragua 2+ goals

20%

Nicaragua 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Russia (draw refunded)

87%

Nicaragua (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Russia at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Nicaragua away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Russia attack 2.67 + Nicaragua defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.42

Nicaragua attack 0.82 + Russia defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Russia scores more

72%

level

17%

Nicaragua scores more

11%

Russia at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Russia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

K. Tyukavin

Russia · F

8.9

Match Events

3'

L. Sadulaev↳ K. Tyukavin

16'

O. Acevedo↳ J. Garcia

42'

Óscar Acevedo

45'

K. TyukavinPenalty

46'

K. Glebov← Y. Gladyshev

46'

J. Quijano← J. Rivera Stuart

47'

Christian Reyes

52'

Valentin Paltsev

64'

B. Hernandez← J. Garcia

67'

A. Mitryushkin← M. Safonov

67'

I. Vakhania← V. Paltsev

67'

A. Golovin← K. Tyukavin

67'

M. Kislyak← N. Umyarov

67'

M. Petrov← D. Fomin

67'

G. Melkadze← L. Sadulaev

75'

J. Gutierrez← O. Acevedo

75'

J. Coronel← M. Lopez

83'

D. Barinov← D. Prutsev

83'

A. Golovin

87'

J. Martinez← J. Barrera

87'

J. Moncada← B. Bonilla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RussiaNicaragua

Overview

67%Possession33%

23Total Shots5

6Corners3

23Fouls5

Shots

23Total Shots5

7On Target1

9Off Target3

7Blocked1

15Inside Box1

8Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

497Total Passes247

425Accurate Passes174

86%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls5

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

5Offsides3