Russia 1–4 Denmark: Result & Stats

Russia

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Denmark

A. Dzyuba 70' (pen)

J. Mæhle 82'

A. Christensen 79'

Y. Poulsen 59'

M. Damsgaard 38'

6/21/2021

Euro Championship · Group B - 3Parken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Russia36%

×Draw22%

Denmark43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RussiaExpected goals in this matchDenmark

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.95

Russia

1.78

Denmark

1.95

Denmark creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.57

creates per match

2.33

1.57

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Russia

2.57

Denmark

2.33

allows per match

Russia

1.57

Denmark

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Russia+0.00on par

Denmark+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Russia ↓

Denmark →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Russia or draw

57%

Russia or Denmark

78%

Draw or Denmark

64%

Winning margin

Russia wins by 2+

18%

Denmark wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Russia 1+ goals

83%

Russia 2+ goals

53%

Russia 3+ goals

26%

Denmark 1+ goals

86%

Denmark 2+ goals

58%

Denmark 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Russia (draw refunded)

46%

Denmark (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Russia at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Denmark away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Russia attack 2.57 + Denmark defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Denmark attack 2.33 + Russia defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Russia scores more

36%

level

22%

Denmark scores more

43%

Denmark at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Denmark will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

Denmark · M

8.0

Match Events

28'

F. Kudryashov

38'

M. Damsgaard↳ P. Højbjerg

57'

T. Delaney

59'

Y. Poulsen

60'

J. Stryger Larsen← D. Wass

60'

K. Dolberg← Y. Poulsen

61'

R. Zhemaletdinov← M. Ozdoev

61'

A. Sobolev← A. Miranchuk

67'

M. Mukhin← D. Kuzyaev

67'

V. Karavaev← F. Kudryashov

70'

A. DzyubaPenalty

72'

C. Nørgaard← M. Damsgaard

75'

I. Diveyev

79'

A. Christensen

82'

J. Mæhle↳ P. Højbjerg

85'

A. Cornelius← M. Braithwaite

86'

M. Jensen← T. Delaney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RussiaDenmark

Overview

35%Possession65%

6Total Shots16

1Corners7

15Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots16

2On Target10

3Off Target2

1Blocked4

3Inside Box11

3Outside Box5

Passing

35%Possession65%

276Total Passes499

184Accurate Passes407

67%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0