Russia 8–0 Cuba: Result & Stats | Friendlies

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RussiaExpected goals in this matchCuba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.88

Russia

2.27

Cuba

0.88

Russia creates 158% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 21 away

2.67

creates per match

0.90

0.85

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Russia

2.67

Cuba

0.90

allows per match

Russia

0.85

Cuba

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Russia+0.00on par

Cuba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Russia ↓

Cuba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Russia or draw

87%

Russia or Cuba

82%

Draw or Cuba

32%

Winning margin

Russia wins by 2+

45%

Cuba wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Russia 1+ goals

90%

Russia 2+ goals

66%

Russia 3+ goals

39%

Cuba 1+ goals

59%

Cuba 2+ goals

22%

Cuba 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Russia (draw refunded)

84%

Cuba (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Russia at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Cuba away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Russia attack 2.67 + Cuba defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.27

Cuba attack 0.90 + Russia defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Russia scores more

68%

level

18%

Cuba scores more

13%

Russia at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Russia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Ivan Oblyakov

Russia · F

9.2

Match Events

22'

Ivan Oblyakov↳ Aleksandr Golovin

30'

Aleksandr Golovin↳ Ivan Oblyakov

34'

Anton Miranchuk↳ Fedor Chalov

38'

Luis Paradela

46'

Danil Prutsev← Anton Miranchuk

46'

Sergey Pinyaev← Aleksandr Golovin

46'

Nikita Krivtsov← Daler Kuzyaev

55'

Aleksandr Silyanov↳ Fedor Chalov

60'

Aleksandr Chernikov← Daniil Glebov

60'

Andrey Mostovoy← Fedor Chalov

60'

Aleksandr Sobolev← Ivan Oblyakov

62'

Christian Valiente← Reidel Sánchez

62'

Rey Ángel Rodríguez← Romario Torrez

66'

Aleksandr Sobolev

68'

Danil Prutsev↳ Andrey Mostovoy

72'

Elvis Casanova← Alejandro Delgado

72'

Ismel Morgado← Raiko Arozarena

74'

Nikita Krivtsov↳ Andrey Mostovoy

78'

Andrey Mostovoy↳ Aleksandr Sobolev

82'

David Pérez← Daniel Diaz

82'

Dany Torriente← Fabian Gloor

85'

Sergey PinyaevMissed penalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RussiaCuba

Overview

66%Possession34%

29Total Shots3

10Corners2

12Fouls7

Shots

29Total Shots3

17On Target0

7Off Target1

5Blocked2

21Inside Box1

8Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

531Total Passes276

471Accurate Passes209

89%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves9

Discipline

12Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0

Russia 8 – 0 Cuba

Russia beat Cuba 8-0 in Friendlies on November 20, 2023.

Goals: Ivan Oblyakov (22'), Aleksandr Golovin (30'), Anton Miranchuk (34'), Aleksandr Silyanov (55'), Aleksandr Sobolev (66'), Danil Prutsev (68'), Nikita Krivtsov (74'), Andrey Mostovoy (78').

Russia controlled possession (66%) and registered 29 shots to 3.

The match was played at Volgograd Arena in Volgograd.

Russia vs Cuba — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Russia 8 – 0 Cuba