Russia 3–0 Burkina Faso: Result & Stats

Russia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Burkina Faso

I. Vakhania 73'

A. Miranchuk 20'

L. Sadulaev 14'

6/5/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalVolgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Russia63%

×Draw21%

Burkina Faso16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RussiaExpected goals in this matchBurkina Faso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.88

Russia

2.00

Burkina Faso

0.88

Russia creates 127% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 22 away

2.67

creates per match

0.91

0.85

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Russia

2.67

Burkina Faso

0.91

allows per match

Russia

0.85

Burkina Faso

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Russia+0.00on par

Burkina Faso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Russia ↓

Burkina Faso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Russia or draw

84%

Russia or Burkina Faso

79%

Draw or Burkina Faso

37%

Winning margin

Russia wins by 2+

39%

Burkina Faso wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Russia 1+ goals

86%

Russia 2+ goals

59%

Russia 3+ goals

32%

Burkina Faso 1+ goals

59%

Burkina Faso 2+ goals

22%

Burkina Faso 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Russia (draw refunded)

80%

Burkina Faso (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Russia at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Burkina Faso away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Russia attack 2.67 + Burkina Faso defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 2.00

Burkina Faso attack 0.91 + Russia defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Russia scores more

63%

level

21%

Burkina Faso scores more

16%

Russia at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Russia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

L. Sadulaev

Russia · F

8.0

Match Events

14'

L. Sadulaev↳ E. Morozov

20'

A. Miranchuk

23'

Lohann Doucet

43'

Mohamed Ouédraogo

46'

O. Bouda← G. Minoungou

46'

R. Gnanou← G. Sangare

60'

G. Melkadze← M. Glushenkov

60'

A. Ibragimov← A. Miranchuk

61'

I. Vakhania← M. Beveev

61'

K. Danilov← E. Morozov

61'

M. Petrov← L. Sadulaev

61'

M. Kislyak← N. Umyarov

70'

S. Simpore← L. Doucet

70'

P. Kabore← M. Konate

72'

Ousseni Bouda

73'

I. Vakhania↳ M. Petrov

77'

A. Tapsoba← D. Ouattara

79'

I. Oblyakov← A. Miranchuk

79'

A. Silyanov← D. Krugovoy

88'

A. Bassinga← A. Kouassi

90+4'

Edmond Tapsoba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RussiaBurkina

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots9

5Corners6

14Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots9

6On Target2

6Off Target1

5Blocked6

12Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

523Total Passes346

459Accurate Passes271

88%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls13

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2