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Russia vs Bosnia & Herzegovina — Friendlies 2026

Russia
Russia
CANC
11:00
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Bosnia & Herzegovina
11/19/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Saint-Petersburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Russia60%
×Draw23%
Bosnia & Herzegovina17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Russia
1.76
Bosnia & Herzegovina
0.81

Russia creates 117% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 14 away

creates per match

Russia
2.52
Bosnia & Herzegovina
0.71

allows per match

Russia
0.92
Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.00

finishing

Russia+0.00on par
Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Russia ↓

Bosnia & Herzegovina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Russia or draw
83%
Russia or Bosnia & Herzegovina
77%
Draw or Bosnia & Herzegovina
40%

Winning margin

Russia wins by 2+
34%
Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Russia 1+ goals
83%
Russia 2+ goals
52%
Russia 3+ goals
26%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals
56%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals
19%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Russia (draw refunded)
78%
Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Russia at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Russia attack 2.52 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.76

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 0.71 + Russia defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Russia scores more
60%
level
23%
Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more
17%

Russia at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Russia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Russia host Bosnia & Herzegovina

November 19, 2022: Russia take on Bosnia & Herzegovina in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Russia host Bosnia & Herzegovina at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.