Russia 3–0 Bolivia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Russia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bolivia

Ivan Sergeev 57'

Aleksei Miranchuk 43'

Lechi Sadulaev 18'

10/14/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Russia69%

×Draw19%

Bolivia12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RussiaExpected goals in this matchBolivia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

0.76

Russia

2.16

Bolivia

0.76

Russia creates 184% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 29 away

2.52

creates per match

0.59

0.92

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Russia

2.52

Bolivia

0.59

allows per match

Russia

0.92

Bolivia

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Russia+0.00on par

Bolivia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Russia ↓

Bolivia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Russia or draw

88%

Russia or Bolivia

81%

Draw or Bolivia

31%

Winning margin

Russia wins by 2+

45%

Bolivia wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Russia 1+ goals

88%

Russia 2+ goals

63%

Russia 3+ goals

36%

Bolivia 1+ goals

53%

Bolivia 2+ goals

18%

Bolivia 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Russia (draw refunded)

85%

Bolivia (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Russia at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Bolivia away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Russia attack 2.52 + Bolivia defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.16

Bolivia attack 0.59 + Russia defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Russia scores more

69%

level

19%

Bolivia scores more

12%

Russia at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Russia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

59

Aleksei Miranchuk

Russia · F

7.9

Match Events

18'

Lechi Sadulaev↳ Ivan Sergeev

23'

Mingiyan Beveev

43'

Aleksei Miranchuk

46'

Maksim Osipenko← Igor Diveev

46'

Aleksandr Silyanov← Mingiyan Beveev

57'

Ivan Sergeev↳ Dmitriy Barinov

63'

Maksim Glushenkov← Lechi Sadulaev

63'

Héctor Cuellar← Ervin Vaca

64'

Yuri Gorshkov← Danil Krugovoy

64'

Nail Umyarov← Matvey Kislyak

64'

Carlos Melgar← José Martínez

66'

Moisés Villarroel← Robson Matheus

66'

José Sagredo← Leonardo Zabala

83'

Konstantin Kuchaev← Ivan Oblyakov

88'

Henry Vaca← Enzo Monteiro

88'

Yomar Rocha← Diego Medina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RussiaBolivia

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots18

1Corners5

15Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots18

8On Target4

5Off Target8

2Blocked6

11Inside Box10

4Outside Box8

Passing

45%Possession55%

404Total Passes490

328Accurate Passes410

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls18

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides2