Russia U21 2–1 Uzbekistan U23: Result & Stats

Russia U21

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Uzbekistan U23

3/27/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalBellis Deluxe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Russia U2154%

×Draw22%

Uzbekistan U2323%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Russia U21Expected goals in this matchUzbekistan U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.17

Russia U21

1.91

Uzbekistan U23

1.17

Russia U21 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

2.14

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Russia U21

2.14

Uzbekistan U23

1.33

allows per match

Russia U21

1.00

Uzbekistan U23

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Russia U21+0.00on par

Uzbekistan U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Russia U21 ↓

Uzbekistan U23 →

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Russia U21 or draw

77%

Russia U21 or Uzbekistan U23

78%

Draw or Uzbekistan U23

46%

Winning margin

Russia U21 wins by 2+

31%

Uzbekistan U23 wins by 2+

Team goals

Russia U21 1+ goals

85%

Russia U21 2+ goals

57%

Russia U21 3+ goals

30%

Uzbekistan U23 1+ goals

69%

Uzbekistan U23 2+ goals

33%

Uzbekistan U23 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Russia U21 (draw refunded)

70%

Uzbekistan U23 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Russia U21 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Uzbekistan U23 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Russia U21 attack 2.14 + Uzbekistan U23 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.91

Uzbekistan U23 attack 1.33 + Russia U21 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Russia U21 scores more

54%

level

22%

Uzbekistan U23 scores more

23%

Russia U21 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Russia U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff