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Russia U21 vs Jordan U23 — Friendlies 2025

Russia U21
Russia U21
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Jordan U23
Jordan U23
D. Pestryakov 72'
M. Al Saket 90'
S. Fraij 36'
3/30/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalSide Ataturk Stadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Russia U2139%
×Draw25%
Jordan U2336%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Russia U21
1.45
Jordan U23
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Russia U21
2.14
Jordan U23
1.75

allows per match

Russia U21
1.00
Jordan U23
0.75

finishing

Russia U21+0.00on par
Jordan U23+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Russia U21 ↓

Jordan U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Russia U21 or draw
64%
Russia U21 or Jordan U23
75%
Draw or Jordan U23
61%

Winning margin

Russia U21 wins by 2+
18%
Jordan U23 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Russia U21 1+ goals
77%
Russia U21 2+ goals
42%
Russia U21 3+ goals
18%
Jordan U23 1+ goals
75%
Jordan U23 2+ goals
40%
Jordan U23 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Russia U21 (draw refunded)
52%
Jordan U23 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Russia U21 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Jordan U23 away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Russia U21 attack 2.14 + Jordan U23 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.45

Jordan U23 attack 1.75 + Russia U21 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Russia U21 scores more
39%
level
25%
Jordan U23 scores more
36%

Russia U21 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Russia U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
S. Fraij
72'
D. Pestryakov
90'
M. Al Saket

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Russia U21 1–2 Jordan U23

Jordan U23 beat Russia U21 2-1 in Friendlies on March 30, 2026.

Goals: S. Fraij (36'), D. Pestryakov (72'), M. Al Saket (90').

The match was played at Side Ataturk Stadi in Manavgat.