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Rupensia Lusitanos vs Union Mertert — Cup 2020

Rupensia Lusitanos
Rupensia Lusitanos
FT
1 – 0
Union Mertert
Union Mertert
10/3/2021CupCup · 2nd RoundTerrain Op Birkelt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rupensia Lusitanos32%
×Draw22%
Union Mertert46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rupensia Lusitanos
1.60
Union Mertert
1.95

Union Mertert creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Rupensia Lusitanos
1.86
Union Mertert
1.33

allows per match

Rupensia Lusitanos
2.57
Union Mertert
1.33

finishing

Rupensia Lusitanos+0.00on par
Union Mertert+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rupensia Lusitanos ↓

Union Mertert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Rupensia Lusitanos or draw
54%
Rupensia Lusitanos or Union Mertert
78%
Draw or Union Mertert
68%

Winning margin

Rupensia Lusitanos wins by 2+
15%
Union Mertert wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Rupensia Lusitanos 1+ goals
80%
Rupensia Lusitanos 2+ goals
47%
Rupensia Lusitanos 3+ goals
22%
Union Mertert 1+ goals
86%
Union Mertert 2+ goals
58%
Union Mertert 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Rupensia Lusitanos (draw refunded)
41%
Union Mertert (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rupensia Lusitanos at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

Union Mertert away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rupensia Lusitanos attack 1.86 + Union Mertert defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Union Mertert attack 1.33 + Rupensia Lusitanos defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rupensia Lusitanos scores more
32%
level
22%
Union Mertert scores more
46%

Union Mertert at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Union Mertert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rupensia Lusitanos vs Union Mertert

Rupensia Lusitanos beat Union Mertert 1-0 in Cup on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Terrain Op Birkelt in Larochette.