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Rupensia Lusitanos vs Noertzange — Cup 2020

Rupensia Lusitanos
Rupensia Lusitanos
FT
5 – 1
Noertzange
Noertzange
9/12/2021CupCup · 1st RoundTerrain Op Birkelt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rupensia Lusitanos60%
×Draw17%
Noertzange23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rupensia Lusitanos
3.10
Noertzange
1.95

Rupensia Lusitanos creates 59% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Rupensia Lusitanos
1.86
Noertzange
1.33

allows per match

Rupensia Lusitanos
2.57
Noertzange
4.33

finishing

Rupensia Lusitanos+0.00on par
Noertzange+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rupensia Lusitanos ↓

Noertzange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Rupensia Lusitanos or draw
77%
Rupensia Lusitanos or Noertzange
83%
Draw or Noertzange
40%

Winning margin

Rupensia Lusitanos wins by 2+
41%
Noertzange wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rupensia Lusitanos 1+ goals
95%
Rupensia Lusitanos 2+ goals
81%
Rupensia Lusitanos 3+ goals
58%
Noertzange 1+ goals
86%
Noertzange 2+ goals
58%
Noertzange 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Rupensia Lusitanos (draw refunded)
72%
Noertzange (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rupensia Lusitanos at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

Noertzange away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rupensia Lusitanos attack 1.86 + Noertzange defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.10

Noertzange attack 1.33 + Rupensia Lusitanos defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rupensia Lusitanos scores more
60%
level
17%
Noertzange scores more
23%

Rupensia Lusitanos at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rupensia Lusitanos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rupensia Lusitanos vs Noertzange

Rupensia Lusitanos beat Noertzange 5-1 in Cup on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Terrain Op Birkelt in Larochette.