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Rupensia Lusitanos vs Jeunesse Canach — Cup 2020

Rupensia Lusitanos
Rupensia Lusitanos
FT
0 – 4
Jeunesse Canach
Jeunesse Canach
10/18/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundTerrain Op Birkelt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rupensia Lusitanos23%
×Draw18%
Jeunesse Canach59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rupensia Lusitanos
1.60
Jeunesse Canach
2.62

Jeunesse Canach creates 64% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rupensia Lusitanos
1.86
Jeunesse Canach
2.67

allows per match

Rupensia Lusitanos
2.57
Jeunesse Canach
1.33

finishing

Rupensia Lusitanos+0.00on par
Jeunesse Canach+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rupensia Lusitanos ↓

Jeunesse Canach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Rupensia Lusitanos or draw
41%
Rupensia Lusitanos or Jeunesse Canach
82%
Draw or Jeunesse Canach
77%

Winning margin

Rupensia Lusitanos wins by 2+
10%
Jeunesse Canach wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Rupensia Lusitanos 1+ goals
80%
Rupensia Lusitanos 2+ goals
47%
Rupensia Lusitanos 3+ goals
22%
Jeunesse Canach 1+ goals
93%
Jeunesse Canach 2+ goals
73%
Jeunesse Canach 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Rupensia Lusitanos (draw refunded)
28%
Jeunesse Canach (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rupensia Lusitanos at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

Jeunesse Canach away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rupensia Lusitanos attack 1.86 + Jeunesse Canach defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Jeunesse Canach attack 2.67 + Rupensia Lusitanos defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rupensia Lusitanos scores more
23%
level
18%
Jeunesse Canach scores more
59%

Jeunesse Canach at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Jeunesse Canach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rupensia Lusitanos vs Jeunesse Canach

Jeunesse Canach beat Rupensia Lusitanos 4-0 in Cup on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Terrain Op Birkelt in Larochette.