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Rupensia Lusitanos vs FC Differdange 03 — Cup 2020

Rupensia Lusitanos
Rupensia Lusitanos
FT
0 – 4
FC Differdange 03
FC Differdange 03advanced
10/31/2021CupCup · Round of 32Terrain Op Birkelt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rupensia Lusitanos8%
×Draw11%
FC Differdange 0381%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rupensia Lusitanos
1.11
FC Differdange 03
3.60

FC Differdange 03 creates 224% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Rupensia Lusitanos
1.86
FC Differdange 03
4.64

allows per match

Rupensia Lusitanos
2.57
FC Differdange 03
0.36

finishing

Rupensia Lusitanos+0.00on par
FC Differdange 03+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rupensia Lusitanos ↓

FC Differdange 03 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–38%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Rupensia Lusitanos or draw
19%
Rupensia Lusitanos or FC Differdange 03
89%
Draw or FC Differdange 03
92%

Winning margin

Rupensia Lusitanos wins by 2+
3%
FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

Rupensia Lusitanos 1+ goals
67%
Rupensia Lusitanos 2+ goals
30%
Rupensia Lusitanos 3+ goals
10%
FC Differdange 03 1+ goals
97%
FC Differdange 03 2+ goals
86%
FC Differdange 03 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

Rupensia Lusitanos (draw refunded)
9%
FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rupensia Lusitanos at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

FC Differdange 03 away — creates 4.64, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rupensia Lusitanos attack 1.86 + FC Differdange 03 defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 1.11

FC Differdange 03 attack 4.64 + Rupensia Lusitanos defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 3.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Rupensia Lusitanos scores more
8%
level
11%
FC Differdange 03 scores more
81%

FC Differdange 03 at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "FC Differdange 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rupensia Lusitanos vs FC Differdange 03

FC Differdange 03 beat Rupensia Lusitanos 4-0 in Cup on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Terrain Op Birkelt in Larochette.