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Rumphi United vs Sable Farming — Super League 2026

Rumphi United
Rumphi United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sable Farming
Sable Farming
5/8/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Rumphi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rumphi United33%
×Draw29%
Sable Farming38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rumphi United
1.06
Sable Farming
1.17

Sable Farming creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rumphi United
0.60
Sable Farming
0.60

allows per match

Rumphi United
1.73
Sable Farming
1.53

finishing

Rumphi United+0.00on par
Sable Farming+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rumphi United ↓

Sable Farming →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rumphi United or draw
62%
Rumphi United or Sable Farming
71%
Draw or Sable Farming
67%

Winning margin

Rumphi United wins by 2+
13%
Sable Farming wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rumphi United 1+ goals
65%
Rumphi United 2+ goals
29%
Rumphi United 3+ goals
9%
Sable Farming 1+ goals
69%
Sable Farming 2+ goals
33%
Sable Farming 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rumphi United (draw refunded)
46%
Sable Farming (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rumphi United at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Sable Farming away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rumphi United attack 0.60 + Sable Farming defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sable Farming attack 0.60 + Rumphi United defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rumphi United scores more
33%
level
29%
Sable Farming scores more
38%

Sable Farming at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sable Farming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Rumphi United 2–0 Sable Farming

Rumphi United beat Sable Farming 2-0 in Super League on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Rumphi Stadium in Rhumpi.