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Rumphi United vs Moyale Barracks — Super League 2026

Rumphi United
Rumphi United
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
7/10/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12Rumphi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rumphi United30%
×Draw28%
Moyale Barracks42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rumphi United
1.05
Moyale Barracks
1.29

Moyale Barracks creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

creates per match

Rumphi United
0.60
Moyale Barracks
0.86

allows per match

Rumphi United
1.73
Moyale Barracks
1.50

finishing

Rumphi United+0.00on par
Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rumphi United ↓

Moyale Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rumphi United or draw
58%
Rumphi United or Moyale Barracks
72%
Draw or Moyale Barracks
70%

Winning margin

Rumphi United wins by 2+
12%
Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rumphi United 1+ goals
65%
Rumphi United 2+ goals
28%
Rumphi United 3+ goals
9%
Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
72%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
37%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rumphi United (draw refunded)
42%
Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rumphi United at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rumphi United attack 0.60 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.05

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + Rumphi United defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rumphi United scores more
30%
level
28%
Moyale Barracks scores more
42%

Moyale Barracks at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rumphi United vs Moyale Barracks

Moyale Barracks beat Rumphi United 5-1 in Super League on July 10, 2022.

The match was played at Rumphi Stadium in Rhumpi.