Rumphi United 0–1 Karonga United: Result & Stats

Rumphi United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Karonga United

6/19/2022

Super League · Round 10Rumphi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rumphi United30%

×Draw28%

Karonga United42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rumphi UnitedExpected goals in this matchKaronga United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.25

Rumphi United

1.02

Karonga United

1.25

Karonga United creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 82 away

0.60

creates per match

0.78

1.73

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Rumphi United

0.60

Karonga United

0.78

allows per match

Rumphi United

1.73

Karonga United

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rumphi United+0.00on par

Karonga United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rumphi United ↓

Karonga United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rumphi United or draw

58%

Rumphi United or Karonga United

72%

Draw or Karonga United

70%

Winning margin

Rumphi United wins by 2+

11%

Karonga United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Rumphi United 1+ goals

64%

Rumphi United 2+ goals

27%

Rumphi United 3+ goals

8%

Karonga United 1+ goals

71%

Karonga United 2+ goals

36%

Karonga United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rumphi United (draw refunded)

42%

Karonga United (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rumphi United at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Karonga United away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rumphi United attack 0.60 + Karonga United defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.02

Karonga United attack 0.78 + Rumphi United defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rumphi United scores more

30%

level

28%

Karonga United scores more

42%

Karonga United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karonga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff