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Rumphi United vs Dedza Dynamos — Super League 2026

Rumphi United
Rumphi United
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dedza Dynamos
Dedza Dynamos
3/20/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Rumphi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rumphi United34%
×Draw28%
Dedza Dynamos39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rumphi United
1.15
Dedza Dynamos
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 65 away

creates per match

Rumphi United
0.60
Dedza Dynamos
0.78

allows per match

Rumphi United
1.73
Dedza Dynamos
1.69

finishing

Rumphi United+0.00on par
Dedza Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rumphi United ↓

Dedza Dynamos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rumphi United or draw
61%
Rumphi United or Dedza Dynamos
72%
Draw or Dedza Dynamos
66%

Winning margin

Rumphi United wins by 2+
14%
Dedza Dynamos wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rumphi United 1+ goals
68%
Rumphi United 2+ goals
32%
Rumphi United 3+ goals
11%
Dedza Dynamos 1+ goals
71%
Dedza Dynamos 2+ goals
36%
Dedza Dynamos 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rumphi United (draw refunded)
47%
Dedza Dynamos (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rumphi United at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Dedza Dynamos away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.69 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rumphi United attack 0.60 + Dedza Dynamos defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.15

Dedza Dynamos attack 0.78 + Rumphi United defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rumphi United scores more
34%
level
28%
Dedza Dynamos scores more
39%

Dedza Dynamos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dedza Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Rumphi United 0–2 Dedza Dynamos

Dedza Dynamos beat Rumphi United 2-0 in Super League on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Rumphi Stadium in Rhumpi.