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Rumilly Vallières vs Saint-Louis Neuweg — Coupe de France 2018

Rumilly Vallières
Rumilly Vallières
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Saint-Louis Neuweg
Saint-Louis Neuweg
10/30/2022Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade des Grangettes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rumilly Vallières52%
×Draw23%
Saint-Louis Neuweg25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rumilly Vallières
1.88
Saint-Louis Neuweg
1.25

Rumilly Vallières creates 50% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Rumilly Vallières
2.25
Saint-Louis Neuweg
1.50

allows per match

Rumilly Vallières
1.00
Saint-Louis Neuweg
1.50

finishing

Rumilly Vallières+0.00on par
Saint-Louis Neuweg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rumilly Vallières ↓

Saint-Louis Neuweg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rumilly Vallières or draw
75%
Rumilly Vallières or Saint-Louis Neuweg
77%
Draw or Saint-Louis Neuweg
48%

Winning margin

Rumilly Vallières wins by 2+
29%
Saint-Louis Neuweg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rumilly Vallières 1+ goals
85%
Rumilly Vallières 2+ goals
56%
Rumilly Vallières 3+ goals
29%
Saint-Louis Neuweg 1+ goals
71%
Saint-Louis Neuweg 2+ goals
36%
Saint-Louis Neuweg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rumilly Vallières (draw refunded)
67%
Saint-Louis Neuweg (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rumilly Vallières at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Saint-Louis Neuweg away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rumilly Vallières attack 2.25 + Saint-Louis Neuweg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Saint-Louis Neuweg attack 1.50 + Rumilly Vallières defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rumilly Vallières scores more
52%
level
23%
Saint-Louis Neuweg scores more
25%

Rumilly Vallières at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rumilly Vallières will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Rumilly Vallières 3–0 Saint-Louis Neuweg

Rumilly Vallières beat Saint-Louis Neuweg 3-0 in Coupe de France on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stade des Grangettes in Rumilly.