Rumilly Vallières 1–0 Jura Dolois: Result & Stats

Rumilly Vallières

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jura Dolois

M. Fortier 65'

11/16/2024

Coupe de France · 7th RoundStade des Grangettes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rumilly Vallières64%

×Draw22%

Jura Dolois13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rumilly VallièresExpected goals in this matchJura Dolois

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.67

Rumilly Vallières

1.79

Jura Dolois

0.67

Rumilly Vallières creates 167% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

2.25

creates per match

0.33

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Rumilly Vallières

2.25

Jura Dolois

0.33

allows per match

Rumilly Vallières

1.00

Jura Dolois

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rumilly Vallières+0.00on par

Jura Dolois+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rumilly Vallières ↓

Jura Dolois →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rumilly Vallières or draw

87%

Rumilly Vallières or Jura Dolois

78%

Draw or Jura Dolois

36%

Winning margin

Rumilly Vallières wins by 2+

38%

Jura Dolois wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Rumilly Vallières 1+ goals

83%

Rumilly Vallières 2+ goals

53%

Rumilly Vallières 3+ goals

26%

Jura Dolois 1+ goals

49%

Jura Dolois 2+ goals

15%

Jura Dolois 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Rumilly Vallières (draw refunded)

83%

Jura Dolois (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rumilly Vallières at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Jura Dolois away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rumilly Vallières attack 2.25 + Jura Dolois defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Jura Dolois attack 0.33 + Rumilly Vallières defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Rumilly Vallières scores more

64%

level

22%

Jura Dolois scores more

13%

Rumilly Vallières at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Rumilly Vallières will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

C. Martin-Pichon← A. Fillon

62'

E. Belhadji← M. Renoud

62'

M. Fortier← I. Eckenfelder

65'

68'

71'

71'

82'

90+2'

P. Devarrewaere← S. Doumbouya

Rumilly

Jura

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Rullier

46'▲C. Martin-Pichon←▼A. Fillon

62'▲E. Belhadji←▼M. Renoud

62'▲M. Fortier←▼I. Eckenfelder

71'▲J. Ruque←▼J. Mizrahi

90+2'▲P. Devarrewaere←▼S. Doumbouya

Rumilly Vallières substitutes

Martin-PichonBelhadjiFortierRuqueDevarrewaereFejozLegros

Manager: A. Pepe

68'▲J. Ahouré←▼S. Nogbou

71'▲A. Lucas←▼H. Voirol

82'▲A. Bassey←▼J. Balmy

Jura Dolois substitutes

AhouréLucasBasseyAsscheThurelOzéeHamdaoui

Match Recap: Rumilly Vallières vs Jura Dolois

Rumilly Vallières beat Jura Dolois 1-0 in Coupe de France on November 16, 2024.

Goals: M. Fortier (65').

The match was played at Stade des Grangettes in Rumilly.

Rumilly Vallières vs Jura Dolois — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rumilly Vallières vs Jura Dolois