Rukh Vynnyky 1–1 Zorya Luhansk: Result & Stats

Rukh Vynnyky

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Zorya Luhansk

A. Boryachuk 37'

A. Sayyadmanesh 74'

9/11/2021

Premier League · Round 7Arena L'viv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rukh Vynnyky37%

×Draw25%

Zorya Luhansk38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rukh VynnykyExpected goals in this matchZorya Luhansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.40

Rukh Vynnyky

1.38

Zorya Luhansk

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

0.91

creates per match

1.39

1.41

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Rukh Vynnyky

0.91

Zorya Luhansk

1.39

allows per match

Rukh Vynnyky

1.41

Zorya Luhansk

1.85

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Rukh Vynnyky+0.31scores more

Zorya Luhansk+0.28scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rukh Vynnyky ↓

Zorya Luhansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rukh Vynnyky or draw

62%

Rukh Vynnyky or Zorya Luhansk

75%

Draw or Zorya Luhansk

63%

Winning margin

Rukh Vynnyky wins by 2+

17%

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Rukh Vynnyky 1+ goals

75%

Rukh Vynnyky 2+ goals

40%

Rukh Vynnyky 3+ goals

16%

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

75%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

41%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rukh Vynnyky (draw refunded)

49%

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rukh Vynnyky at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.41 · 9 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.85 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rukh Vynnyky attack 0.91 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.38

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.39 + Rukh Vynnyky defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rukh Vynnyky scores more

37%

level

25%

Zorya Luhansk scores more

38%

Zorya Luhansk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

32'

37'

38'

39'

46'

62'

63'

70'

A. Kukharuk← O. Prytula

72'

R. Owusu← O. Gladkyi

73'

S. Zahedi← M. Imerekov

74'

A. Sayyadmanesh↳ V. Vernydub

80'

D. Kondrakov← A. Boryachuk

81'

O. Kuzyk← B. Boychuk

89'

Reis Rodriguez Leovigildo Junior

90+3'

Marian Mysyk

90'

O. Sych← A. Kukharuk

Possession

Shots

Statistics

RukhZorya

Overview

36%Possession64%

7Total Shots18

0Corners6

19Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots18

5On Target8

2Off Target10

Passing

36%Possession64%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls15

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1