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Rukh Vynnyky vs Zorya Luhansk — Premier League 2026

Rukh Vynnyky
Rukh Vynnyky
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
A. Gromov 60', 8'
4/3/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Arena L'viv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rukh Vynnyky37%
×Draw25%
Zorya Luhansk38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rukh Vynnyky
1.38
Zorya Luhansk
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rukh Vynnyky
0.91
Zorya Luhansk
1.39

allows per match

Rukh Vynnyky
1.41
Zorya Luhansk
1.85

finishing

Rukh Vynnyky+0.31scores more
Zorya Luhansk+0.28scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rukh Vynnyky ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rukh Vynnyky or draw
62%
Rukh Vynnyky or Zorya Luhansk
75%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
63%

Winning margin

Rukh Vynnyky wins by 2+
17%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rukh Vynnyky 1+ goals
75%
Rukh Vynnyky 2+ goals
40%
Rukh Vynnyky 3+ goals
16%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
75%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
41%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rukh Vynnyky (draw refunded)
49%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rukh Vynnyky at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.41 · 9 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.85 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rukh Vynnyky attack 0.91 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.38

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.39 + Rukh Vynnyky defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rukh Vynnyky scores more
37%
level
25%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
38%

Zorya Luhansk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Miloš Stamenković
8'
A. Gromov↳ V. Kabaev
14'
David Zec
16'
Shahab Zahedi
38'
Dmytro Ivanisenia
46'
M. Kukharevych← D. Kondrakov
46'
A. Boryachuk← Y. Klymchuk
60'
A. Gromov↳ V. Kabaev
63'
Vladlen Yurchenko
65'
A. Kukharuk← R. Karasyuk
65'
O. Prytula← B. Boychuk
67'
A. Sayyadmanesh← M. Lunev
77'
A. Cigaņiks← Juninho
77'
E. Nazaryna← L. Cvek
77'
O. Gladkyi← A. Gromov
83'
Dmytro Ivanisenia
83'
Dmytro Ivanisenia
88'
S. Gryn← S. Zahedi

Possession

47%Rukh

Shots

12Rukh

Statistics

RukhZorya
Overview
47%Possession53%
12Total Shots10
4Corners5
18Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots10
7On Target5
5Off Target5
Passing
47%Possession53%
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
Discipline
18Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Rukh Vynnyky vs Zorya Luhansk

Zorya Luhansk beat Rukh Vynnyky 2-0 in Premier League on April 3, 2021.

Goals: A. Gromov (8', 60').

Zorya Luhansk controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Arena L'viv in L'viv.