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Rukh Vynnyky U19 vs Livyi Bereh U19 — U19 League 2023

Rukh Vynnyky U19
Rukh Vynnyky U19
FT
7 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Livyi Bereh U19
Livyi Bereh U19
I. Denysov 76', 60'
B. Sliubyk 49'
Y. Muzhilovsky 42', 30'
Y. Karabin 36' (pen)
Y. Pastukh 22'
D. Dmytriiev 90+1'
11/23/2024U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 14Stadion im. Bohdan Markevycha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rukh Vynnyky U1962%
×Draw20%
Livyi Bereh U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rukh Vynnyky U19
2.24
Livyi Bereh U19
1.14

Rukh Vynnyky U19 creates 96% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rukh Vynnyky U19
2.20
Livyi Bereh U19
0.87

allows per match

Rukh Vynnyky U19
1.40
Livyi Bereh U19
2.27

finishing

Rukh Vynnyky U19+0.00on par
Livyi Bereh U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rukh Vynnyky U19 ↓

Livyi Bereh U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Rukh Vynnyky U19 or draw
82%
Rukh Vynnyky U19 or Livyi Bereh U19
80%
Draw or Livyi Bereh U19
38%

Winning margin

Rukh Vynnyky U19 wins by 2+
39%
Livyi Bereh U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rukh Vynnyky U19 1+ goals
89%
Rukh Vynnyky U19 2+ goals
65%
Rukh Vynnyky U19 3+ goals
38%
Livyi Bereh U19 1+ goals
68%
Livyi Bereh U19 2+ goals
32%
Livyi Bereh U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rukh Vynnyky U19 (draw refunded)
77%
Livyi Bereh U19 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rukh Vynnyky U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

Livyi Bereh U19 away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rukh Vynnyky U19 attack 2.20 + Livyi Bereh U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.24

Livyi Bereh U19 attack 0.87 + Rukh Vynnyky U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Rukh Vynnyky U19 scores more
62%
level
20%
Livyi Bereh U19 scores more
18%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rukh Vynnyky U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
Y. Pastukh
30'
Y. Muzhilovsky
36'
Y. KarabinPenalty
42'
Y. Muzhilovsky
49'
B. Sliubyk
60'
I. Denysov
76'
I. Denysov
90+1'
D. Dmytriiev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rukh Vynnyky U19 vs Livyi Bereh U19

Rukh Vynnyky U19 beat Livyi Bereh U19 7-1 in U19 League on November 23, 2024.

Goals: Y. Pastukh (22'), Y. Muzhilovsky (30', 42'), Y. Karabin (36' pen), B. Sliubyk (49'), I. Denysov (60', 76'), D. Dmytriiev (90+1').

The match was played at Stadion im. Bohdan Markevycha in Vynnyky.