Rukh Vynnyky U19 3–2 Dnipro-1 U19: Result & Stats

Rukh Vynnyky U19

FT

3 – 2

Dnipro-1 U19

8/26/2023

U19 League · Round 5Stadion im. Bohdan Markevycha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rukh Vynnyky U1942%

×Draw23%

Dnipro-1 U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rukh Vynnyky U19Expected goals in this matchDnipro-1 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.53

Rukh Vynnyky U19

1.70

Dnipro-1 U19

1.53

Rukh Vynnyky U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

2.20

creates per match

1.67

1.40

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Rukh Vynnyky U19

2.20

Dnipro-1 U19

1.67

allows per match

Rukh Vynnyky U19

1.40

Dnipro-1 U19

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rukh Vynnyky U19+0.00on par

Dnipro-1 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rukh Vynnyky U19 ↓

Dnipro-1 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Rukh Vynnyky U19 or draw

65%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 or Dnipro-1 U19

77%

Draw or Dnipro-1 U19

58%

Winning margin

Rukh Vynnyky U19 wins by 2+

22%

Dnipro-1 U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Rukh Vynnyky U19 1+ goals

82%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 2+ goals

51%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 3+ goals

24%

Dnipro-1 U19 1+ goals

78%

Dnipro-1 U19 2+ goals

45%

Dnipro-1 U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Rukh Vynnyky U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Dnipro-1 U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rukh Vynnyky U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

Dnipro-1 U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rukh Vynnyky U19 attack 2.20 + Dnipro-1 U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.70

Dnipro-1 U19 attack 1.67 + Rukh Vynnyky U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rukh Vynnyky U19 scores more

42%

level

23%

Dnipro-1 U19 scores more

35%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rukh Vynnyky U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff