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Ruh Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk — Premier League 2026

Ruh Lviv
Ruh Lviv
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
Y. Klymchuk 87'
V. Runich 67'
N. Rusyn 21'
7/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Stadion Ukraina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Ruh Lviv36%
×Draw26%
Zorya Luhansk38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruh Lviv
1.36
Zorya Luhansk
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ruh Lviv
0.91
Zorya Luhansk
1.38

allows per match

Ruh Lviv
1.41
Zorya Luhansk
1.82

finishing

Ruh Lviv+0.31scores more
Zorya Luhansk+0.12scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruh Lviv ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ruh Lviv or draw
62%
Ruh Lviv or Zorya Luhansk
74%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
64%

Winning margin

Ruh Lviv wins by 2+
16%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ruh Lviv 1+ goals
74%
Ruh Lviv 2+ goals
39%
Ruh Lviv 3+ goals
16%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
75%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
41%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ruh Lviv (draw refunded)
49%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruh Lviv at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.41 · 9 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.82 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruh Lviv attack 0.91 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.36

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.38 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ruh Lviv scores more
36%
level
26%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
38%

Zorya Luhansk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Denys Antyukh
19'
Anderson Jordan
21'
N. Rusyn↳ D. Antiukh
37'
Roman Didyk
42'
Vikentiy Voloshyn
59'
O. Yatsyk← V. Voloshyn
64'
V. Runich← M. Mysyk
64'
I. Kvasnytsia← D. Tesliuk
65'
Oleksandr Yatsyk
67'
V. Runich↳ Y. Klymchuk
71'
V. Buhai← D. Alefirenko
77'
D. Nahnoinyi← D. Antiukh
77'
I. Snurnitsyn← I. Kyriukhantsev
83'
Y. Pastukh← O. Prytula
84'
Anderson Jordan
84'
Anderson Jordan
87'
Y. Klymchuk↳ I. Kvasnytsia
88'
Marko Sapuga
88'
D. Sliusar← R. Didyk
89'
Dmytro Myshnov

Shots

18Ruh

Statistics

RuhZorya
Overview
18Total Shots17
12Corners4
11Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots17
6On Target5
10Off Target10
2Blocked2
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls12
2Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards1

Premier League: Ruh Lviv 2–1 Zorya Luhansk

Ruh Lviv beat Zorya Luhansk 2-1 in Premier League on July 29, 2023.

Goals: N. Rusyn (21'), V. Runich (67'), Y. Klymchuk (87').

The match was played at Stadion Ukraina in Lviv.