Ruh Lviv vs Kryvbas KR — Premier League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 9+ matches
Ruh Lviv37%
Kryvbas KR36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 9 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ruh Lviv ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ruh Lviv at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.41 · 9 matches
Kryvbas KR away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ruh Lviv attack 0.91 + Kryvbas KR defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.19
Kryvbas KR attack 0.94 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Ruh Lviv at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Ruh Lviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Ruh Lviv substitutes
Kryvbas KR substitutes
Head to Head
Shakhtar Donetsk
Dynamo Kyiv
Zorya Luhansk
Desna
Oleksandria
Kolos Kovalivka
Dnipro-1
FC Mariupol
Lviv
Vorskla Poltava
Olimpik Donetsk
KarpatyIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ruh Lviv host Kryvbas KR on Saturday, 13 April 2024 at 15:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2019/2020 season.
Premier League: Ruh Lviv 1–1 Kryvbas KR
Ruh Lviv and Kryvbas KR drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 13, 2024.
Goals: O. Kozhushko (45'), Talles (73').
The match was played at Arena Lviv in Lviv.