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Ruh Brest vs Smorgon — 1. Division 2018

Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Smorgon
Smorgon
5/18/20191. Division1. Division · Round 6Stadyen Junost (Brest)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ruh Brest58%
×Draw22%
Smorgon20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruh Brest
1.96
Smorgon
1.06

Ruh Brest creates 85% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 60 away

creates per match

Ruh Brest
2.21
Smorgon
1.13

allows per match

Ruh Brest
1.00
Smorgon
1.72

finishing

Ruh Brest+0.00on par
Smorgon+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruh Brest ↓

Smorgon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ruh Brest or draw
80%
Ruh Brest or Smorgon
78%
Draw or Smorgon
42%

Winning margin

Ruh Brest wins by 2+
34%
Smorgon wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ruh Brest 1+ goals
86%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
58%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
31%
Smorgon 1+ goals
65%
Smorgon 2+ goals
29%
Smorgon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
74%
Smorgon (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruh Brest at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Smorgon away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.72 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruh Brest attack 2.21 + Smorgon defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.96

Smorgon attack 1.13 + Ruh Brest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ruh Brest scores more
58%
level
22%
Smorgon scores more
20%

Ruh Brest at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Ruh Brest 3–0 Smorgon

Ruh Brest beat Smorgon 3-0 in 1. Division on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadyen Junost (Brest).