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Ruh Brest vs Orsha — 1. Division 2018

Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Orsha
Orsha
4/20/20191. Division1. Division · Round 2Stadyen Junost (Brest)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ruh Brest60%
×Draw20%
Orsha20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruh Brest
2.19
Orsha
1.18

Ruh Brest creates 86% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 128 away

creates per match

Ruh Brest
2.21
Orsha
1.36

allows per match

Ruh Brest
1.00
Orsha
2.17

finishing

Ruh Brest+0.00on par
Orsha+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruh Brest ↓

Orsha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ruh Brest or draw
80%
Ruh Brest or Orsha
80%
Draw or Orsha
40%

Winning margin

Ruh Brest wins by 2+
37%
Orsha wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ruh Brest 1+ goals
89%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
64%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
37%
Orsha 1+ goals
69%
Orsha 2+ goals
33%
Orsha 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
75%
Orsha (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruh Brest at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Orsha away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.17 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruh Brest attack 2.21 + Orsha defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.19

Orsha attack 1.36 + Ruh Brest defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ruh Brest scores more
60%
level
20%
Orsha scores more
20%

Ruh Brest at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ruh Brest vs Orsha

Ruh Brest beat Orsha 6-1 in 1. Division on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadyen Junost (Brest).