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Ruh Brest vs FC Vitebsk — Premier League 2018

Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
11/5/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Stadyen DASK Brestski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ruh Brest51%
×Draw25%
FC Vitebsk24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruh Brest
1.64
FC Vitebsk
1.04

Ruh Brest creates 58% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 114 away

creates per match

Ruh Brest
1.83
FC Vitebsk
1.02

allows per match

Ruh Brest
1.07
FC Vitebsk
1.44

finishing

Ruh Brest+0.00on par
FC Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruh Brest ↓

FC Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ruh Brest or draw
76%
Ruh Brest or FC Vitebsk
75%
Draw or FC Vitebsk
49%

Winning margin

Ruh Brest wins by 2+
27%
FC Vitebsk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ruh Brest 1+ goals
81%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
49%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
23%
FC Vitebsk 1+ goals
65%
FC Vitebsk 2+ goals
28%
FC Vitebsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
68%
FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruh Brest at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

FC Vitebsk away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.44 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruh Brest attack 1.83 + FC Vitebsk defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.64

FC Vitebsk attack 1.02 + Ruh Brest defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ruh Brest scores more
51%
level
25%
FC Vitebsk scores more
24%

Ruh Brest at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ruh Brest vs FC Vitebsk

Ruh Brest beat FC Vitebsk 2-0 in Premier League on November 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadyen DASK Brestski in Brest.