Ruh Brest 2–2 Bate Borisov: Result & Stats

Ruh Brest

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Bate Borisov

9/25/2021

Premier League · Round 24Stadyen DASK Brestski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ruh Brest39%

×Draw26%

Bate Borisov35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ruh BrestExpected goals in this matchBate Borisov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.29

Ruh Brest

1.39

Bate Borisov

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 125 away

1.83

creates per match

1.50

1.07

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Ruh Brest

1.83

Bate Borisov

1.50

allows per match

Ruh Brest

1.07

Bate Borisov

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruh Brest ↓

Bate Borisov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ruh Brest or draw

65%

Ruh Brest or Bate Borisov

74%

Draw or Bate Borisov

61%

Winning margin

Ruh Brest wins by 2+

18%

Bate Borisov wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ruh Brest 1+ goals

75%

Ruh Brest 2+ goals

40%

Ruh Brest 3+ goals

16%

Bate Borisov 1+ goals

72%

Bate Borisov 2+ goals

37%

Bate Borisov 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)

53%

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruh Brest at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Bate Borisov away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.95 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruh Brest attack 1.83 + Bate Borisov defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bate Borisov attack 1.50 + Ruh Brest defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ruh Brest scores more

39%

level

26%

Bate Borisov scores more

35%

Ruh Brest at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff