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Rugby Town vs Leicester Road — League #55 2026

Rugby Town
Rugby Town
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Leicester Road
Leicester Road
2/15/2025League #55League #55 · Northern Midlands - 32Butlin Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rugby Town33%
×Draw29%
Leicester Road38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rugby Town
1.06
Leicester Road
1.17

Leicester Road creates 10% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Rugby Town
1.00
Leicester Road
1.13

allows per match

Rugby Town
1.20
Leicester Road
1.13

finishing

Rugby Town+0.00on par
Leicester Road+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rugby Town ↓

Leicester Road →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rugby Town or draw
62%
Rugby Town or Leicester Road
71%
Draw or Leicester Road
67%

Winning margin

Rugby Town wins by 2+
13%
Leicester Road wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rugby Town 1+ goals
65%
Rugby Town 2+ goals
29%
Rugby Town 3+ goals
9%
Leicester Road 1+ goals
69%
Leicester Road 2+ goals
33%
Leicester Road 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rugby Town (draw refunded)
46%
Leicester Road (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rugby Town at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Leicester Road away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rugby Town attack 1.00 + Leicester Road defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Leicester Road attack 1.13 + Rugby Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rugby Town scores more
33%
level
29%
Leicester Road scores more
38%

Leicester Road at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leicester Road will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #55: Rugby Town 2–1 Leicester Road

Rugby Town beat Leicester Road 2-1 in League #55 on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Butlin Road in Rugby, Warwikshire.