Rugby Borough W 7–1 Peterborough United W

Rugby Borough W

7 – 1

Peterborough United W

11/24/2024

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundNationwide Windows Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rugby Borough W84%

×Draw9%

Peterborough United W7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rugby Borough WExpected goals in this matchPeterborough United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.73

1.48

Rugby Borough W

4.73

Peterborough United W

1.48

Rugby Borough W creates 220% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

4.80

creates per match

2.17

0.80

allows per match

4.67

creates per match

Rugby Borough W

4.80

Peterborough United W

2.17

allows per match

Rugby Borough W

0.80

Peterborough United W

4.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rugby Borough W+0.00on par

Peterborough United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rugby Borough W ↓

Peterborough United W →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–01%

1–12%

1–21%

1–31%

1–40%

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–05%

4–18%

4–26%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

83%17%4.5

68%32%

Double chance

Rugby Borough W or draw

93%

Rugby Borough W or Peterborough United W

91%

Draw or Peterborough United W

16%

Winning margin

Rugby Borough W wins by 2+

70%

Peterborough United W wins by 2+

Team goals

Rugby Borough W 1+ goals

99%

Rugby Borough W 2+ goals

94%

Rugby Borough W 3+ goals

81%

Peterborough United W 1+ goals

77%

Peterborough United W 2+ goals

43%

Peterborough United W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Rugby Borough W (draw refunded)

92%

Peterborough United W (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rugby Borough W at home — creates 4.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Peterborough United W away — creates 2.17, concedes 4.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rugby Borough W attack 4.80 + Peterborough United W defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 4.73

Peterborough United W attack 2.17 + Rugby Borough W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 84%?"

Rugby Borough W scores more

84%

level

Peterborough United W scores more

Rugby Borough W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Rugby Borough W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff