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Rudňany vs Spišské Podhradie — 3. liga - East 2020

Rudňany
Rudňany
FT
1 – 1
Spišské Podhradie
Spišské Podhradie
8/29/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 6Futbalový štadión Rudňany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rudňany49%
×Draw21%
Spišské Podhradie30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudňany
2.19
Spišské Podhradie
1.70

Rudňany creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 65 away

creates per match

Rudňany
1.53
Spišské Podhradie
0.80

allows per match

Rudňany
2.60
Spišské Podhradie
2.86

finishing

Rudňany+0.00on par
Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudňany ↓

Spišské Podhradie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Rudňany or draw
70%
Rudňany or Spišské Podhradie
79%
Draw or Spišské Podhradie
51%

Winning margin

Rudňany wins by 2+
29%
Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rudňany 1+ goals
89%
Rudňany 2+ goals
64%
Rudňany 3+ goals
37%
Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals
82%
Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals
51%
Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Rudňany (draw refunded)
62%
Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudňany at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Spišské Podhradie away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.86 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudňany attack 1.53 + Spišské Podhradie defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.19

Spišské Podhradie attack 0.80 + Rudňany defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rudňany scores more
49%
level
21%
Spišské Podhradie scores more
30%

Rudňany at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rudňany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudňany vs Spišské Podhradie

Rudňany and Spišské Podhradie drew 1-1 in 3. liga - East on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rudňany in Rudňany.