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Rudňany vs Sobrance — 3. liga - East 2020

Rudňany
Rudňany
FT
3 – 2
Sobrance
Sobrance
9/25/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 10Futbalový štadión Rudňany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rudňany46%
×Draw21%
Sobrance32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudňany
2.03
Sobrance
1.67

Rudňany creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rudňany
1.53
Sobrance
0.73

allows per match

Rudňany
2.60
Sobrance
2.53

finishing

Rudňany+0.00on par
Sobrance+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudňany ↓

Sobrance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Rudňany or draw
68%
Rudňany or Sobrance
79%
Draw or Sobrance
54%

Winning margin

Rudňany wins by 2+
26%
Sobrance wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rudňany 1+ goals
87%
Rudňany 2+ goals
60%
Rudňany 3+ goals
33%
Sobrance 1+ goals
81%
Sobrance 2+ goals
50%
Sobrance 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Rudňany (draw refunded)
59%
Sobrance (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudňany at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Sobrance away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudňany attack 1.53 + Sobrance defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.03

Sobrance attack 0.73 + Rudňany defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rudňany scores more
46%
level
21%
Sobrance scores more
32%

Rudňany at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rudňany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Rudňany 3–2 Sobrance

Rudňany beat Sobrance 3-2 in 3. liga - East on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rudňany in Rudňany.