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Rudňany vs Snina — 3. liga - East 2020

Rudňany
Rudňany
FT
3 – 4
Snina
Snina
8/14/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 4Futbalový štadión Rudňany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rudňany33%
×Draw22%
Snina45%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudňany
1.58
Snina
1.88

Snina creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

creates per match

Rudňany
1.53
Snina
1.15

allows per match

Rudňany
2.60
Snina
1.63

finishing

Rudňany+0.00on par
Snina+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudňany ↓

Snina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Rudňany or draw
55%
Rudňany or Snina
78%
Draw or Snina
67%

Winning margin

Rudňany wins by 2+
16%
Snina wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Rudňany 1+ goals
79%
Rudňany 2+ goals
47%
Rudňany 3+ goals
21%
Snina 1+ goals
85%
Snina 2+ goals
56%
Snina 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Rudňany (draw refunded)
42%
Snina (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudňany at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Snina away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.63 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudňany attack 1.53 + Snina defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

Snina attack 1.15 + Rudňany defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rudňany scores more
33%
level
22%
Snina scores more
45%

Snina at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Snina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Rudňany 3–4 Snina

Snina beat Rudňany 4-3 in 3. liga - East on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rudňany in Rudňany.