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Rudňany vs Slávia TU Košice — 3. liga - East 2020

Rudňany
Rudňany
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Slávia TU Košice
Slávia TU Košice
4/23/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 22Futbalový štadión Rudňany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rudňany29%
×Draw22%
Slávia TU Košice49%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudňany
1.52
Slávia TU Košice
2.02

Slávia TU Košice creates 33% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

creates per match

Rudňany
1.53
Slávia TU Košice
1.45

allows per match

Rudňany
2.60
Slávia TU Košice
1.52

finishing

Rudňany+0.00on par
Slávia TU Košice+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudňany ↓

Slávia TU Košice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Rudňany or draw
51%
Rudňany or Slávia TU Košice
78%
Draw or Slávia TU Košice
71%

Winning margin

Rudňany wins by 2+
13%
Slávia TU Košice wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Rudňany 1+ goals
78%
Rudňany 2+ goals
45%
Rudňany 3+ goals
20%
Slávia TU Košice 1+ goals
87%
Slávia TU Košice 2+ goals
60%
Slávia TU Košice 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Rudňany (draw refunded)
37%
Slávia TU Košice (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudňany at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Slávia TU Košice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.52 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudňany attack 1.53 + Slávia TU Košice defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.52

Slávia TU Košice attack 1.45 + Rudňany defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rudňany scores more
29%
level
22%
Slávia TU Košice scores more
49%

Slávia TU Košice at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Slávia TU Košice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudňany vs Slávia TU Košice

Slávia TU Košice beat Rudňany 5-0 in 3. liga - East on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rudňany in Rudňany.