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Rudes vs Zrinski Jurjevac — First NL 2018

Rudes
Rudes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
3/9/2025First NLFirst NL · Round 21Igralište NK Rudeš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rudes56%
×Draw25%
Zrinski Jurjevac20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudes
1.62
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.85

Rudes creates 91% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 34 away

creates per match

Rudes
1.71
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.91

allows per match

Rudes
0.80
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.53

finishing

Rudes+0.00on par
Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudes ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rudes or draw
80%
Rudes or Zrinski Jurjevac
75%
Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac
44%

Winning margin

Rudes wins by 2+
30%
Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rudes 1+ goals
80%
Rudes 2+ goals
48%
Rudes 3+ goals
22%
Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
57%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
21%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rudes (draw refunded)
74%
Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudes at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.80 · 91 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudes attack 1.71 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.62

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 0.91 + Rudes defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rudes scores more
56%
level
25%
Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
20%

Rudes at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rudes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Rudes 1–0 Zrinski Jurjevac

Rudes beat Zrinski Jurjevac 1-0 in First NL on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Igralište NK Rudeš in Zagreb.