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Rudes vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — HNL 2018

Rudes
Rudes
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
5/18/2024HNLHNL · Round 35Igralište NK Rudeš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rudes25%
×Draw24%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudes
1.13
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.69

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb creates 50% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 144 away

creates per match

Rudes
0.72
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.15

allows per match

Rudes
2.22
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.53

finishing

Rudes+0.00on par
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudes ↓

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rudes or draw
50%
Rudes or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
76%
Draw or NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
75%

Winning margin

Rudes wins by 2+
10%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Rudes 1+ goals
68%
Rudes 2+ goals
31%
Rudes 3+ goals
11%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1+ goals
82%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2+ goals
50%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Rudes (draw refunded)
34%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudes at home — creates 0.72, concedes 2.22 · 36 matches

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudes attack 0.72 + NK Lokomotiva Zagreb defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.13

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb attack 1.15 + Rudes defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rudes scores more
25%
level
24%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scores more
50%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "NK Lokomotiva Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: Rudes 3–3 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Rudes and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb drew 3-3 in HNL on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Igralište NK Rudeš in Zagreb.