Rudes 1–3 Istra 1961: Result & Stats | HNL

Rudes

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Istra 1961

5/3/2024

HNL · Round 33Stadion Kranjčevićeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Rudes30%

×Draw25%

Istra 196145%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RudesExpected goals in this matchIstra 1961

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.53

Rudes

1.20

Istra 1961

1.53

Istra 1961 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 143 away

0.71

creates per match

0.81

2.26

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Rudes

0.71

Istra 1961

0.81

allows per match

Rudes

2.26

Istra 1961

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rudes+0.00on par

Istra 1961+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudes ↓

Istra 1961 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rudes or draw

55%

Rudes or Istra 1961

75%

Draw or Istra 1961

70%

Winning margin

Rudes wins by 2+

12%

Istra 1961 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rudes 1+ goals

70%

Rudes 2+ goals

34%

Rudes 3+ goals

12%

Istra 1961 1+ goals

78%

Istra 1961 2+ goals

45%

Istra 1961 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Rudes (draw refunded)

40%

Istra 1961 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudes at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.26 · 35 matches

Istra 1961 away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.69 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudes attack 0.71 + Istra 1961 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.20

Istra 1961 attack 0.81 + Rudes defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rudes scores more

30%

level

25%

Istra 1961 scores more

45%

Istra 1961 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Istra 1961 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff