Rudes vs HNK Rijeka — HNL 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 36+ matches
Rudes20%
HNK Rijeka57%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
HNK Rijeka creates 91% more chances
Season form · 36 home / 144 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Rudes ↓
Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Rudes at home — creates 0.72, concedes 2.22 · 36 matches
HNK Rijeka away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.19 · 144 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Rudes attack 0.72 + HNK Rijeka defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.95
HNK Rijeka attack 1.40 + Rudes defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.81
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
HNK Rijeka at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Rudes host HNK Rijeka on Sunday, 1 October 2023 at 13:15. The match is part of the HNL 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Rudes vs HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka beat Rudes 2-1 in HNL on October 1, 2023.
Goals: N. Janković (12'), F. Ivanović (79'), F. Topić (90').
HNK Rijeka controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 9.
The match was played at Stadion Kranjčevićeva in Zagreb.