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Rudes vs HNK Gorica — HNL 2018

Rudes
Rudes
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica
9/2/2023HNLHNL · Round 7Stadion Kranjčevićeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Rudes24%
×Draw24%
HNK Gorica51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudes
1.07
HNK Gorica
1.67

HNK Gorica creates 56% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 144 away

creates per match

Rudes
0.71
HNK Gorica
1.08

allows per match

Rudes
2.26
HNK Gorica
1.43

finishing

Rudes+0.00on par
HNK Gorica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudes ↓

HNK Gorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rudes or draw
49%
Rudes or HNK Gorica
76%
Draw or HNK Gorica
76%

Winning margin

Rudes wins by 2+
9%
HNK Gorica wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Rudes 1+ goals
66%
Rudes 2+ goals
29%
Rudes 3+ goals
9%
HNK Gorica 1+ goals
81%
HNK Gorica 2+ goals
50%
HNK Gorica 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Rudes (draw refunded)
32%
HNK Gorica (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudes at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.26 · 35 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.43 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudes attack 0.71 + HNK Gorica defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.07

HNK Gorica attack 1.08 + Rudes defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rudes scores more
24%
level
24%
HNK Gorica scores more
51%

HNK Gorica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "HNK Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudes vs HNK Gorica

HNK Gorica beat Rudes 2-0 in HNL on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kranjčevićeva in Zagreb.