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Rudersdorf vs Pinkafeld — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Rudersdorf
Rudersdorf
FT
1 – 4
Pinkafeld
Pinkafeld
8/26/2022Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 6Sportplatz Rudersdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rudersdorf31%
×Draw21%
Pinkafeld48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudersdorf
1.64
Pinkafeld
2.06

Pinkafeld creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 72 away

creates per match

Rudersdorf
1.27
Pinkafeld
1.82

allows per match

Rudersdorf
2.30
Pinkafeld
2.00

finishing

Rudersdorf+0.00on par
Pinkafeld+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudersdorf ↓

Pinkafeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Rudersdorf or draw
52%
Rudersdorf or Pinkafeld
79%
Draw or Pinkafeld
69%

Winning margin

Rudersdorf wins by 2+
15%
Pinkafeld wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Rudersdorf 1+ goals
81%
Rudersdorf 2+ goals
49%
Rudersdorf 3+ goals
23%
Pinkafeld 1+ goals
87%
Pinkafeld 2+ goals
61%
Pinkafeld 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Rudersdorf (draw refunded)
40%
Pinkafeld (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudersdorf at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.30 · 30 matches

Pinkafeld away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.00 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudersdorf attack 1.27 + Pinkafeld defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Pinkafeld attack 1.82 + Rudersdorf defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rudersdorf scores more
31%
level
21%
Pinkafeld scores more
48%

Pinkafeld at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pinkafeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Burgenland: Rudersdorf 1–4 Pinkafeld

Pinkafeld beat Rudersdorf 4-1 in Landesliga - Burgenland on August 26, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Rudersdorf in Rudersdorf.