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Rudersdorf vs Markt Allhau — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Rudersdorf
Rudersdorf
FT
2 – 4
Markt Allhau
Markt Allhau
10/8/2022Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 12Sportplatz Rudersdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rudersdorf37%
×Draw22%
Markt Allhau41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudersdorf
1.74
Markt Allhau
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 41 away

creates per match

Rudersdorf
1.27
Markt Allhau
1.37

allows per match

Rudersdorf
2.30
Markt Allhau
2.20

finishing

Rudersdorf+0.00on par
Markt Allhau+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudersdorf ↓

Markt Allhau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Rudersdorf or draw
59%
Rudersdorf or Markt Allhau
78%
Draw or Markt Allhau
63%

Winning margin

Rudersdorf wins by 2+
19%
Markt Allhau wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Rudersdorf 1+ goals
82%
Rudersdorf 2+ goals
52%
Rudersdorf 3+ goals
25%
Markt Allhau 1+ goals
84%
Markt Allhau 2+ goals
54%
Markt Allhau 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Rudersdorf (draw refunded)
48%
Markt Allhau (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudersdorf at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.30 · 30 matches

Markt Allhau away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.20 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudersdorf attack 1.27 + Markt Allhau defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.74

Markt Allhau attack 1.37 + Rudersdorf defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rudersdorf scores more
37%
level
22%
Markt Allhau scores more
41%

Markt Allhau at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Markt Allhau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Burgenland: Rudersdorf 2–4 Markt Allhau

Markt Allhau beat Rudersdorf 4-2 in Landesliga - Burgenland on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Rudersdorf in Rudersdorf.