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Rudar vs Tabor Sežana — 2. SNL 2019

Rudar
Rudar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
3/17/20242. SNL2. SNL · Round 21Štadion Ob Jezeru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Rudar39%
×Draw26%
Tabor Sežana36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar
1.40
Tabor Sežana
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 45 away

creates per match

Rudar
1.31
Tabor Sežana
1.44

allows per match

Rudar
1.23
Tabor Sežana
1.49

finishing

Rudar+0.00on par
Tabor Sežana+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar ↓

Tabor Sežana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rudar or draw
64%
Rudar or Tabor Sežana
74%
Draw or Tabor Sežana
61%

Winning margin

Rudar wins by 2+
18%
Tabor Sežana wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rudar 1+ goals
75%
Rudar 2+ goals
41%
Rudar 3+ goals
17%
Tabor Sežana 1+ goals
74%
Tabor Sežana 2+ goals
38%
Tabor Sežana 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Rudar (draw refunded)
52%
Tabor Sežana (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 86 matches

Tabor Sežana away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar attack 1.31 + Tabor Sežana defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Tabor Sežana attack 1.44 + Rudar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rudar scores more
39%
level
26%
Tabor Sežana scores more
36%

Rudar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rudar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudar vs Tabor Sežana

Rudar beat Tabor Sežana 1-0 in 2. SNL on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Štadion Ob Jezeru in Velenje.