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Rudar vs Šmartno — 2. SNL 2019

Rudar
Rudar
CANC
14:00
Šmartno
Šmartno
3/14/20212. SNL2. SNL · Round 18Štadion Ob Jezeru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rudar47%
×Draw25%
Šmartno28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar
1.56
Šmartno
1.16

Rudar creates 34% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 11 away

creates per match

Rudar
1.31
Šmartno
1.09

allows per match

Rudar
1.23
Šmartno
1.82

finishing

Rudar+0.00on par
Šmartno+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar ↓

Šmartno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rudar or draw
72%
Rudar or Šmartno
75%
Draw or Šmartno
53%

Winning margin

Rudar wins by 2+
24%
Šmartno wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rudar 1+ goals
79%
Rudar 2+ goals
46%
Rudar 3+ goals
21%
Šmartno 1+ goals
69%
Šmartno 2+ goals
32%
Šmartno 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rudar (draw refunded)
62%
Šmartno (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 86 matches

Šmartno away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar attack 1.31 + Šmartno defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Šmartno attack 1.09 + Rudar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rudar scores more
47%
level
25%
Šmartno scores more
28%

Rudar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rudar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rudar vs Šmartno — Match Preview

Rudar face Šmartno on March 14, 2021 in this 2. SNL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Rudar host Šmartno at Štadion Ob Jezeru.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.