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Rudar vs Krško — 2. SNL 2019

Rudar
Rudar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Krško
Krško
J. Perkovic 88'
D. Simic 81'
S. Satchwell 21'
5/7/20262. SNL2. SNL · Round 27Mestni stadion ob jezeru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Rudar47%
×Draw25%
Krško28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar
1.56
Krško
1.14

Rudar creates 37% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 66 away

creates per match

Rudar
1.31
Krško
1.05

allows per match

Rudar
1.23
Krško
1.80

finishing

Rudar+0.00on par
Krško+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar ↓

Krško →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rudar or draw
72%
Rudar or Krško
75%
Draw or Krško
53%

Winning margin

Rudar wins by 2+
24%
Krško wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rudar 1+ goals
79%
Rudar 2+ goals
46%
Rudar 3+ goals
21%
Krško 1+ goals
68%
Krško 2+ goals
32%
Krško 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rudar (draw refunded)
63%
Krško (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 86 matches

Krško away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.80 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar attack 1.31 + Krško defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Krško attack 1.05 + Rudar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rudar scores more
47%
level
25%
Krško scores more
28%

Rudar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rudar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
S. Satchwell
81'
D. Simic
88'
J. Perkovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudar vs Krško

Rudar beat Krško 3-0 in 2. SNL on May 7, 2026.

Goals: S. Satchwell (21'), D. Simic (81'), J. Perkovic (88').

The match was played at Mestni stadion ob jezeru in Velenje.