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Rudar vs Grbalj — Second League 2019

Rudar
Rudar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Grbalj
Grbalj
9/15/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 7Stadion Pod Golubinjom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Rudar53%
×Draw25%
Grbalj22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar
1.60
Grbalj
0.94

Rudar creates 70% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 105 away

creates per match

Rudar
1.86
Grbalj
1.04

allows per match

Rudar
0.83
Grbalj
1.35

finishing

Rudar+0.00on par
Grbalj+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar ↓

Grbalj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rudar or draw
78%
Rudar or Grbalj
75%
Draw or Grbalj
47%

Winning margin

Rudar wins by 2+
28%
Grbalj wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rudar 1+ goals
80%
Rudar 2+ goals
47%
Rudar 3+ goals
22%
Grbalj 1+ goals
61%
Grbalj 2+ goals
24%
Grbalj 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rudar (draw refunded)
70%
Grbalj (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.83 · 35 matches

Grbalj away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar attack 1.86 + Grbalj defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.60

Grbalj attack 1.04 + Rudar defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rudar scores more
53%
level
25%
Grbalj scores more
22%

Rudar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rudar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rudar 1 – 1 Grbalj

Rudar and Grbalj drew 1-1 in Second League on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Golubinjom in Pljevlja.