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Grbalj vs Rudar — Second League 2021

Grbalj
Grbalj
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rudar
Rudar
S. Cadenovic 78'
M. Sekulic 16' (OG)
D. Jovanovic 81'
12/6/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 19Stadion Donja Sutvara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Grbalj40%
×Draw26%
Rudar34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grbalj
1.39
Rudar
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 35 away

creates per match

Grbalj
1.32
Rudar
1.29

allows per match

Grbalj
1.25
Rudar
1.46

finishing

Grbalj+0.00on par
Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grbalj ↓

Rudar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Grbalj or draw
66%
Grbalj or Rudar
74%
Draw or Rudar
60%

Winning margin

Grbalj wins by 2+
19%
Rudar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Grbalj 1+ goals
75%
Grbalj 2+ goals
40%
Grbalj 3+ goals
16%
Rudar 1+ goals
72%
Rudar 2+ goals
36%
Rudar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Grbalj (draw refunded)
54%
Rudar (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grbalj at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 87 matches

Rudar away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grbalj attack 1.32 + Rudar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Rudar attack 1.29 + Grbalj defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Grbalj scores more
40%
level
26%
Rudar scores more
34%

Grbalj at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grbalj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
M. SekulicOwn goal
78'
S. Cadenovic
81'
D. Jovanovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grbalj 2 – 1 Rudar

Grbalj beat Rudar 2-1 in Second League on December 6, 2025.

Goals: M. Sekulic (16' o.g.), S. Cadenovic (78'), D. Jovanovic (81').

The match was played at Stadion Donja Sutvara in Radanovici.