Rudar 1–1 Dravinja: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Rudar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dravinja

A. Krefl 24' (pen)

B. Rozmaric 32' (pen)

4/25/2026

2. SNL · Round 25Mestni stadion ob jezeru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Rudar44%

×Draw26%

Dravinja31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RudarExpected goals in this matchDravinja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.21

Rudar

1.49

Dravinja

1.21

Rudar creates 23% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 45 away

1.31

creates per match

1.20

1.23

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Rudar

1.31

Dravinja

1.20

allows per match

Rudar

1.23

Dravinja

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rudar+0.00on par

Dravinja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar ↓

Dravinja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rudar or draw

69%

Rudar or Dravinja

74%

Draw or Dravinja

56%

Winning margin

Rudar wins by 2+

21%

Dravinja wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rudar 1+ goals

77%

Rudar 2+ goals

44%

Rudar 3+ goals

19%

Dravinja 1+ goals

70%

Dravinja 2+ goals

34%

Dravinja 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rudar (draw refunded)

59%

Dravinja (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 86 matches

Dravinja away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar attack 1.31 + Dravinja defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

Dravinja attack 1.20 + Rudar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rudar scores more

44%

level

26%

Dravinja scores more

31%

Rudar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rudar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

A. KreflPenalty

32'

B. RozmaricPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff