Rudar Velenje 0–2 Sutjeska: Result & Stats | Cup

Rudar Velenje

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sutjeska

L. Žižić 90+3'

T. Conraad 5' (pen)

10/26/2022

Cup · Quarter-finalsStadion Pod Golubinjom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rudar Velenje48%

×Draw32%

Sutjeska20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rudar VelenjeExpected goals in this matchSutjeska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.63

Rudar Velenje

1.13

Sutjeska

0.63

Rudar Velenje creates 79% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

0.75

0.50

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Rudar Velenje

1.00

Sutjeska

0.75

allows per match

Rudar Velenje

0.50

Sutjeska

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rudar Velenje+0.00on par

Sutjeska+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Velenje ↓

Sutjeska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Rudar Velenje or draw

80%

Rudar Velenje or Sutjeska

68%

Draw or Sutjeska

52%

Winning margin

Rudar Velenje wins by 2+

20%

Sutjeska wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Rudar Velenje 1+ goals

68%

Rudar Velenje 2+ goals

31%

Rudar Velenje 3+ goals

11%

Sutjeska 1+ goals

47%

Sutjeska 2+ goals

13%

Sutjeska 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)

70%

Sutjeska (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Velenje at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Sutjeska away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Velenje attack 1.00 + Sutjeska defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sutjeska attack 0.75 + Rudar Velenje defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rudar Velenje scores more

48%

level

32%

Sutjeska scores more

20%

Rudar Velenje at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rudar Velenje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

T. ConraadPenalty

19'

I. Bojović← S. Nikolić

60'

I. Tučević← O. Đinović

60'

D. Vuković← I. Pajović

69'

F. Knežević← N. Eraković

69'

L. Žižić← T. Conraad

84'

M. Kalezić← M. Matanović

90+3'

L. Žižić

Rudar

Sutjeska

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: D. Aničić

19'▲I. Bojović←▼S. Nikolić

Rudar Velenje substitutes

Bojović

Manager: N. Brnović

60'▲I. Tučević←▼O. Đinović

60'▲D. Vuković←▼I. Pajović

69'▲F. Knežević←▼N. Eraković

69'▲L. Žižić←▼T. Conraad

84'▲M. Kalezić←▼M. Matanović

Sutjeska substitutes

TučevićVukovićKneževićŽižićKalezić

Cup: Rudar Velenje 0–2 Sutjeska

Sutjeska beat Rudar Velenje 2-0 in Cup on October 26, 2022.

Goals: T. Conraad (5' pen), L. Žižić (90+3').

The match was played at Stadion Pod Golubinjom in Pljevlja.

Rudar Velenje vs Sutjeska — Cup 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cup: Rudar Velenje 0–2 Sutjeska