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Rudar Velenje vs Petrovac — First League 2019

Rudar Velenje
Rudar Velenje
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Petrovac
Petrovac
9/12/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Rudar Velenje37%
×Draw27%
Petrovac35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Velenje
1.24
Petrovac
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 125 away

creates per match

Rudar Velenje
1.10
Petrovac
1.11

allows per match

Rudar Velenje
1.28
Petrovac
1.37

finishing

Rudar Velenje+0.00on par
Petrovac+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Velenje ↓

Petrovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rudar Velenje or draw
65%
Rudar Velenje or Petrovac
73%
Draw or Petrovac
63%

Winning margin

Rudar Velenje wins by 2+
16%
Petrovac wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rudar Velenje 1+ goals
71%
Rudar Velenje 2+ goals
35%
Rudar Velenje 3+ goals
13%
Petrovac 1+ goals
70%
Petrovac 2+ goals
34%
Petrovac 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)
51%
Petrovac (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Velenje at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 89 matches

Petrovac away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Velenje attack 1.10 + Petrovac defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

Petrovac attack 1.11 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rudar Velenje scores more
37%
level
27%
Petrovac scores more
35%

Rudar Velenje at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rudar Velenje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Rudar Velenje 1–0 Petrovac

Rudar Velenje beat Petrovac 1-0 in First League on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Berane.