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Petrovac vs Rudar — Cup 2020

Petrovac
Petrovacadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rudar
Rudar
2/18/2025CupCup · Quarter-finalsStadion Mitar Mićo Goliš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Petrovac48%
×Draw23%
Rudar29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petrovac
1.80
Rudar
1.34

Petrovac creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Petrovac
1.60
Rudar
1.29

allows per match

Petrovac
1.40
Rudar
2.00

finishing

Petrovac+0.00on par
Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrovac ↓

Rudar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Petrovac or draw
71%
Petrovac or Rudar
77%
Draw or Rudar
52%

Winning margin

Petrovac wins by 2+
26%
Rudar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Petrovac 1+ goals
83%
Petrovac 2+ goals
54%
Petrovac 3+ goals
27%
Rudar 1+ goals
74%
Rudar 2+ goals
39%
Rudar 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Petrovac (draw refunded)
63%
Rudar (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrovac at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Rudar away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrovac attack 1.60 + Rudar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Rudar attack 1.29 + Petrovac defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Petrovac scores more
48%
level
23%
Rudar scores more
29%

Petrovac at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Petrovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Petrovac 2–1 Rudar

Petrovac beat Rudar 2-1 in Cup on February 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Mitar Mićo Goliš in Petrovac na Moru.